Overview
- Iran and Oman reached an understanding on geographic coordinates for a possible shipping corridor this week, but negotiators have not finalised a binding transit agreement or implementation plan.
- Thursday publication of an Iranian state‑media draft proposing bans on U.S. and Israeli vessels and penalties and fees for violators prompted markets to view any corridor as restrictive rather than a full reopening.
- Reports of explosions near Qeshm Island and Houthi claims of missile and drone strikes on Saudi tankers raised fears of wider disruption to shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
- Oil prices swung from early‑week declines on hopes of a deal to renewed gains after the draft and attack reports, with a surprise U.S. crude inventory build earlier in the week adding to market volatility.
- Physical flows remain strained, with Gulf exports about 40% below pre‑war levels and practical barriers such as sanctions, insurance limits, fee disputes and continued naval actions standing between any agreement and a resumption of normal trade.