Overview
- The Feb. 28 airstrikes that killed Iran’s previous supreme leader set off the war and left Mojtaba Khamenei badly wounded and largely unseen, with insiders saying he now rules from the shadows while senior clerics and IRGC commanders handle day‑to‑day decisions.
- The United States has launched Operation Economic Outcast, using expanded secondary sanctions and financial restrictions to cut Iran’s access to banks and shippers with early targets including Egypt’s Banque Misr and entities linked to Bank Melli.
- Control of the Strait of Hormuz remains a central bargaining chip as Tehran insists ships must have Iranian permission to pass and commercial transits plunged to single‑digit vessels on recent days, keeping global oil flows and prices under strain.
- Iran’s economy is in steep decline with exports and imports down about 35%, annual inflation near 66%, and crude loadings plunging, though Tehran says it sold roughly 90 million barrels during the short June MoU with Washington.
- Regional mediators from Qatar, Pakistan and Oman are pursuing technical and diplomatic proposals to restore some shipping, but the IRGC’s greater role in strategy and the political opacity around Khamenei make a swift breakthrough unlikely and raise the risk of domestic unrest and wider escalation.