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Intuitive Machines Shares Fall After Blue Origin Test Explosion

The sell-off highlights that the company’s revenue hinges on the timing of task orders rather than the size of its backlog.

Overview

  • Intuitive Machines’ stock plunged about 12.8% in a one-day drop after Blue Origin’s New Glenn exploded during a hot-fire engine test, triggering broad selling in space-sector stocks.
  • The company continues to hold a reported backlog above $1 billion and was named one of 14 awardees on the Space Force’s Andromeda IDIQ, a 10-year vehicle contract that allows bidding on task orders but does not create immediate revenue.
  • Intuitive Machines won roughly $20 million in recent NASA-related contracts to operate and support lunar imaging instruments, a sign of continuing government work that adds to future revenue opportunities.
  • The company posted year-over-year revenue growth after its mid-January Lanteris acquisition but missed some first-quarter expectations, leaving near-term margins and cash flow under scrutiny.
  • Analysts, including Cantor Fitzgerald which has reiterated an Overweight rating and a $43 price target, say the stock will track near-term catalysts such as CLPS CP32 awards, the IM-3 mission and potential Golden Dome contracts that could convert backlog into revenue.