Overview
- UN Tourism reported about 307 million international arrivals in the first quarter of 2026, a 2% increase from Q1 2025.
- Growth slowed sharply in March to roughly 0.4% after stronger gains in January and February, with the conflict in the Middle East cited as the main drag on demand.
- Arrivals to the Middle East fell about 14% in Q1 and IATA data show Middle Eastern carriers registered a steep decline in traffic, which reduced available seats and disrupted hub connections.
- Rising oil and jet‑fuel prices and localized fuel shortages are forcing route changes, cutting airline capacity and pushing up airfares, and 64% of UN Tourism experts report negative impacts on demand.
- The shock is creating clear regional winners and losers — Europe and Africa posted the strongest Q1 gains while Asia remains below pre‑pandemic levels — and UN Tourism says ongoing fuel and conflict developments will determine whether the year ends with slower overall growth.