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2w ago

Internal Poll Shows Hochul’s Lead Over Stefanik Narrowing to 5 Points in New York

A GrayHouse survey commissioned by Elise Stefanik’s PAC diverges from Siena’s wider-margin finding.

Elise Stefanik, questions Kathy Hochul during a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform hearing, Thursday, June 12, 2025, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington.
A new poll commissioned by U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik's PAC found that Gov. Kathy Hochul only holds a 5-point lead over the likely Republican candidate.
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Overview

  • Hochul leads Stefanik 48% to 43% in a hypothetical 2026 matchup, according to a GrayHouse poll of likely voters conducted after Hochul endorsed Zohran Mamdani.
  • In an informed ballot that presented both candidates’ records, the survey found Stefanik narrowly ahead 46.4% to 45.9%.
  • The poll reports that 47% of independents would be less likely to back Democrats for governor if Mamdani wins the New York City mayoralty, and 59% of voters say it is time for someone new as governor.
  • The survey sampled 1,250 likely 2026 voters from Sept. 20–26 with a 2.6% margin of error and was conducted for Stefanik’s E-PAC by GrayHouse.
  • The internal results contrast with a Siena poll from mid-September showing Hochul up by 25 points, and coverage notes Stefanik is positioned as a likely challenger but has not formally entered the race.