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Intel Rally Near 25-Year High Faces Earnings Test

Thursday’s results will test whether AI-driven CPU demand is lifting Intel’s numbers.

Overview

  • Intel shares, which touched $70.32 last week, are up about 78% this year after April moves that included 18A-based Core Series 3 chips, a $14.2 billion buyback of Apollo’s Fab 34 stake, and fresh AI ties with Google and Elon Musk’s Terafab project.
  • Analysts say hyperscalers racing to secure server CPUs are driving a supply squeeze that gives Intel rare pricing power, with fabs running near full and margins expected to improve if tightness persists.
  • Wall Street sentiment has shifted but remains split, with upgrades such as HSBC to Buy at $95 and BNP Paribas to $60 alongside Stifel’s $65, even as the consensus rating stays Hold and the average target sits near $52–56.
  • An earnings report Thursday after the close carries estimates near $0.02 in EPS on roughly $12.4 billion in revenue, and options point to about a 10% move as investors parse guidance on manufacturing progress.
  • Key watch items include 18A wafer yields and the supply constraints Intel said would be most acute in Q1 before easing in Q2, which could shape confidence in its foundry push and determine whether the stock’s re-rating holds.