Overview
- Prosecutors charged a U.S. Army soldier with using classified intelligence to bet $33,000 on a Polymarket contract about a raid on Nicolás Maduro, cashing out about $400,000, with Polymarket saying it alerted authorities and Kalshi saying it blocked his attempt.
- In response to mounting scrutiny, Kalshi and Polymarket introduced stricter insider rules that bar politicians from trading on their own campaigns, athletes from betting in their leagues, and employees from wagering on events tied to their employers.
- Kalshi said it fined and suspended three federal candidates for wagering on their own elections and banned them from the platform for five years, signaling tougher self‑policing by a U.S.‑regulated exchange.
- Oversight fights are intensifying as the CFTC asserts federal authority over event contracts, New York’s attorney general sues firms as illegal gambling operators, and members of Congress push to restrict markets tied to war, assassinations, and deaths.
- Design choices shape risk and enforcement, with Polymarket operating offshore with crypto and pseudonymous accounts while Kalshi runs onshore with identity checks, a split that fuels a broader debate in which economist Robin Hanson says insider trades can make prices more accurate even as officials warn of national‑security leaks.