Overview
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed July headline CPI rose 0.1% month‑over‑month and 3.4% year‑over‑year while core CPI rose 0.2% month‑over‑month and 2.5% year‑over‑year, with readings broadly in line with forecasts.
- Money markets sharply reduced the probability of a September rate increase to roughly 40% after the CPI release and short‑term Treasury yields pulled back as traders priced a lower near‑term hike chance.
- Equity gains were powered by a strong round of AI‑infrastructure earnings, with Super Micro and CoreWeave each jumping about 19% and Nebius rallying over 34%, helping U.S. tech indexes and sparking a regional rally led by South Korea.
- Crude oil remained elevated around the low‑to‑high $80s per barrel because the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked over Gulf talks and access through the Strait of Hormuz, a dynamic that keeps upside pressure on future headline inflation.
- Investors are now focused on July producer prices, weekly jobless claims and central‑bank comments for fresh signals ahead of Jackson Hole and the September FOMC, with higher oil prices a key risk that could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% goal and influence household costs.