Overview
- Pump prices have eased only a little after the ceasefire, which Carsten Brzeski says reflects a pullback from extreme early‑week spikes rather than lasting relief.
- The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage for Persian Gulf oil shipments, remains restricted and keeps supply risk high.
- In his baseline, a renewed escalation comes before a gradual reopening of Hormuz over four to six weeks.
- He sees full normalization only in the fourth quarter and expects Brent crude to finish the year just under $90 a barrel.
- He projects German growth of about 0.6–0.7% under the baseline, while a worst case could push inflation to 6–8% and tip the economy into a mild recession.