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Inflation Rebound Puts Banxico on the Spot as Argentina Accelerates Contentious Reforms

The twin strains signal rising doubts about policy credibility that could keep major investors on the sidelines into 2027.

Overview

  • Banxico, facing Thursday’s rate decision, came under pressure after this week’s INEGI data showed inflation picked up again, prompting calls to stop cutting and to keep the option of rate hikes on the table.
  • A prominent columnist speculated the board would split, with Jonathan Heath and likely Galia Borja favoring a hold and Omar Mejía and José Gabriel Cuadra backing a quarter‑point cut, leaving Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja as the swing vote.
  • Argentina’s Senate passed a version of the government’s Plan B election package that drops the midterm recall proposal in the text sent to the lower house.
  • Deputies ran packed public hearings on the Ley de Glaciares using a mixed in‑person, virtual, and written format that a federal court allowed, with testimony clashing over mining jobs versus water security and leaders targeting a committee vote on March 31 and a floor session on April 8.
  • Despite buying more than US$3.9 billion so far in 2026, Argentina’s central bank has not lifted net reserves by a similar amount — the IMF’s key gauge — and reports from investor gatherings say many large funds plan to wait until after the 2027 elections before making major commitments.