Overview
- Forecasters raised their 2027 cost‑of‑living estimates after April’s BLS report showed 3.9% annual inflation, pointing to one of the bigger increases in recent years.
- The Social Security Administration bases the COLA on the CPI‑W by comparing the July–September average with the same period a year earlier, then announces the result in October.
- The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.9% raise and CRFB pegs it at 3.8%, with a potential outcome between roughly 3% and 4.5% depending on summer inflation.
- Seniors received a 2.8% boost in January, yet higher housing, medical and energy costs have already outpaced that increase this spring.
- CRFB warns a near‑4% adjustment would add about $300 billion to Social Security’s 10‑year shortfall and slightly accelerate the projected insolvency date of the old‑age trust fund.