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Industry-Led Rebound Lifts Pakistan's Q2 Growth to 3.89%

Data gaps plus rising poverty raise doubts about the recovery.

Overview

  • Pakistan’s National Accounts Committee, meeting Thursday, reported Q2 FY26 growth of 3.89% led by a 7.4% jump in industry.
  • Services grew 3.69% and agriculture edged up 1.76% as major crops contracted and livestock, forestry, and fishing offset some of the drag.
  • A State Bank representative pressed for an actual wheat number, but the statistics office said harvesting is still incomplete even though sown area rose 3.4%.
  • The statistics office revised Q1 FY26 growth down to 3.63% and trimmed FY2023-24 and FY2024-25 estimates, putting first-half FY26 growth at 3.76%.
  • Authorities kept a 4.0%–4.5% full-year outlook and a 4.2% target, though household surveys report poverty at 29% and unemployment at 7.1%.