Overview
- Kpler vessel‑tracking shows India averaged about 2.6 million barrels per day of Russian crude from June 1–18 and projects full‑month volumes above roughly 2.25–2.35 mbpd, which would be a monthly record.
- The surge follows disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz that have taken a large share of West Asian supply offline and pushed refiners to seek non‑Hormuz barrels.
- Indian buyers are choosing Russian grades because steep discounts and compatibility with local refinery setups lower costs and operational risk.
- A U.S. temporary waiver that eased purchases of some Russian cargoes expired on June 17 and has not been renewed, while a U.S. deal legally reopens Iranian exports but insurers, banks and buyers face commercial and compliance hurdles that will slow large‑scale Iranian shipments.
- Venezuelan shipments to India are rising as a partial hedge but remain limited by production and logistics, and Russia’s higher seaborne exports are boosting its fossil‑fuel earnings and drawing increased political scrutiny from the United States and allies.