Overview
- The new national accounts and CPI series are in use, with FY2023–24 growth revised to 7.2% from 9.2%, FY2024–25 to 7.1% from 6.5%, and the current fiscal estimate raised to about 7.6%.
- Q3 FY26 showed standout manufacturing GVA growth of 13.3% under the revised framework, even as analysts flag a prolonged negative manufacturing deflator that inflates real readings.
- Fitch now projects FY26 growth at 7.5% on resilient domestic demand, estimating consumer spending up 8.6% and investment up 6.9%, and it expects a slowdown in early FY27 as inflation pressures real incomes.
- Fitch sees headline inflation gradually rising to roughly 4.5% by December 2026 with the policy rate held at 5.25% near term, while PMI signals suggest activity cooled in January–February though credit growth stays in double digits.
- Forecasts diverge as Goldman Sachs pegs FY26 growth at 6.5%, and policymakers and Fitch highlight oil-price risks; Piyush Goyal says any war-related shortfall would be short term as fundamentals remain strong.