Overview
- Crisil projected on Monday that organised dairy revenue will accelerate to 13–15% in FY27, an increase of 200–400 basis points based on a sample of 37 dairies that together account for about 60% of organised revenue.
- The agency said revenue gains will come from sustained volume growth of 8–10% driven by staple milk demand and faster uptake of value-added items, plus staggered retail-price increases to pass on higher input costs.
- El Niño is expected to cut raw-milk production growth to roughly 4% year-on-year, which Crisil says will raise milk procurement costs by about 4–5% and lift average retail prices about 5–6% across product segments.
- Crisil expects industry operating margins to stay near 4% in FY27 while companies sustain capex at recent levels, with debt-to-EBITDA forecast to improve to about 2.3x and interest coverage to remain above six times.
- Key risks are the severity of weather-related supply shocks and the timely commissioning and ramp-up of new processing capacity, and consumers can expect phased price rises with steeper increases for premium, value-added products.