Overview
- Official data show a large national rainfall shortfall that widened through June, reaching roughly 35–40% deficit by June 17 with central and western India the worst hit.
- Forecasters link the stall to an anticyclonic circulation north of Mumbai, stronger mid‑latitude westerly intrusions, and an unfavourable Madden–Julian Oscillation phase that have reduced moisture transport.
- Satellite imagery from INSAT‑3DS, Meteosat and NOAA shows vast cloud‑free gaps over Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas, signalling weak monsoon convection there.
- The central government has ordered crop‑wise contingency plans, placed about 150–200 districts under priority monitoring and set up weekly El Niño reviews while Odisha has formed a state task force to manage water and drought risk.
- IMD forecasts a western disturbance from June 18 and a possible revival of rains after June 21 but cautions uncertainty, and agencies warn that a strengthening El Niño increases the chance of a deficient season with consequences for sowing, reservoirs and fertiliser supplies.