Overview
- The Index of Eight Core Industries, which covers coal, oil, gas, refining, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity, fell 0.4% year over year in March in Monday’s government release, the first decline in five months and the weakest in about 19 months.
- Fertiliser production sank 24.6%, a series-record drop, while crude oil fell 5.7%, coal 4.0% and electricity 0.5% as energy-linked sectors turned lower.
- Natural gas output rose 6.4% in March, its strongest increase in roughly 22 months, and refinery products, steel and cement still grew, though steel and cement slowed from February.
- Analysts tie the fertiliser collapse to West Asia disruptions that cut gas supply to plants to about 70–75% in March and drove up ammonia prices, with gas allocations later lifted to around 95%.
- For the full fiscal year, core sectors grew 2.6%, and forecasters expect March industrial production to cool to about 1–2% as input strains persist, raising the risk of tighter fertiliser availability for farmers unless imports cover the gap.