Overview
- Markets opened higher on Thursday after President Trump signalled progress in US‑Iran negotiations and crude oil fell, but benchmarks erased most gains by the close as concerns about Indian policy and inflation reasserted themselves.
- Brent and WTI remain well above pre‑conflict levels with recent sessions trading roughly in the low‑to‑mid $100s per barrel, keeping imported inflation and corporate margin pressure on investor minds.
- The rupee hit fresh record lows near 96.8–96.96 to the dollar before a late bounce, a move that raises fuel import costs for India which sources about 85–90% of its crude needs.
- Foreign portfolio investors have been net sellers since the conflict began, with cumulative outflows of more than USD 22 billion and provisional daily FPI selling of about Rs 2,457.5 crore contributing to equity and currency stress.
- Volatility is high with India VIX in the high teens and large intraday swings driven by rollover flows and episodic buying in big names such as Reliance; traders will watch oil, rupee moves, FPI flows and any RBI signals for the next directional cue.