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India Unveils 2022-23 GDP Series Showing 7.8% Q3 Growth and a Lower Nominal Base

Economists call the upgrade a credibility boost for data-driven policymaking.

Overview

  • The 2022-23–based series records GDP growth of 7.8% in Q3 FY26 after 8.4% in Q2, with manufacturing expanding in double digits for a fifth straight quarter and construction and contact-intensive services remaining strong.
  • The Second Advance Estimate places FY2025-26 real GDP growth at 7.6%, pegging real GDP at Rs 322.58 lakh crore.
  • The rebasing incorporates GST filings, corporate financials, and surveys of unincorporated enterprises, and introduces double deflation in agriculture and manufacturing.
  • Under the new framework, the estimated nominal size of the economy for 2024-25 is about 3.8% lower, affecting readings tied to fiscal deficit and debt targets.
  • The government plans to release a pre-2022-23 back series by year-end, a complex task given limited historical availability of the new granular datasets.