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2mo ago

India to Unveil New GDP Series on Feb. 27 With 2022/23 Base and Overhauled Deflators

The overhaul introduces more granular deflators with a shift toward double deflation to address past measurement biases.

A man walks between the buildings at a commercial centre in New Delhi, India, February 28, 2023. REUTERS/Altaf Hussain
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Overview

  • The statistics ministry will publish the revised national accounts on February 27, adopting 2022/23 as the base year and releasing back-series data for roughly the past four years.
  • The new methodology expands the deflation basket to about 500–600 CPI/WPI items from around 180 and moves toward double deflation to better capture real value added, especially in manufacturing.
  • Economists warn that historical and current GDP readings will be revised, with earlier quarterly figures and the second advance estimates for FY26 expected to change under the new framework.
  • Growth nowcasts for Q3 FY26 remain dispersed, with SBI Research near 8.1% and ICRA and CareEdge around 7.2%, reflecting mixed signals from resilient consumption, weaker government capex, and soft exports.
  • The GDP update is part of a broader statistical revamp following a new CPI series, with WPI and IIP revisions in progress, and comes after IMF criticism of India’s earlier methods and base year.