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India Says It Has Overtaken Japan to Become the World's No. 4 Economy

Confirmation now hinges on the IMF’s final 2025 GDP tables due in the first half of 2026.

Overview

  • The government’s year-end review puts India’s nominal GDP at $4.18 trillion and asserts the economy has moved ahead of Japan in global ranking.
  • Real GDP grew 8.2% in Q2 of FY2025–26, a six-quarter high driven largely by robust private consumption.
  • The Reserve Bank of India lifted its FY2025–26 growth estimate to 7.3% as officials flagged low inflation, falling unemployment and supportive credit conditions.
  • Merchandise exports reached $38.13 billion in November 2025, led by engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products.
  • International agencies have raised growth projections, and the government forecasts a $7.3 trillion economy by 2030 with a potential move past Germany within about three years, as China’s embassy publicly offered congratulations.