Overview
- The finance ministry raised customs duty on gold to 15% and the prime minister asked citizens to avoid buying gold for one year; the decision took effect on May 22, 2026.
- The World Gold Council estimates combined jewellery and bar/coin demand will fall about 50–60 tonnes in 2026, equal to roughly a 10% drop from last year.
- Crisil forecasts organised jewellery volumes will decline 13–15% in fiscal 2027 while revenues could rise 20–25% because higher gold prices will increase realisations.
- Jewellers expect official imports to fall to about 400 tonnes this year and are urging reforms to the Gold Monetisation Scheme to unlock recycled household stocks as a substitute for new bullion.
- Analysts warn the duty hike could boost unofficial imports as happened after past rate rises and that any Reserve Bank of India limits on gold lending would raise jewellers’ working capital costs.