Overview
- The NSO’s first advance estimates place real GDP growth at 7.4% for FY26, driven by services at roughly 9.1% and manufacturing near 7%.
- Nominal GDP is pegged at ₹357.14 lakh crore, implying about 8% growth, a rate below the Budget assumption but an absolute level that broadly preserves fiscal calculations.
- The estimates imply slower second‑half momentum of roughly 6.8%, reflecting softer consumption and a taper in public capex after a strong first half.
- Forecast updates point to resilience in FY26 but moderation ahead: SBI sees about 7.5% and Morgan Stanley 7.6% this year, while the UN projects 6.6% for 2026 and 6.7% for 2027 with US tariff effects partly cushioned by other markets.
- Key statistical updates loom, with a GDP base‑year change to 2022‑23 due in February and the second advance estimates on February 27 that could materially revise levels and growth rates.