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India Keeps 4% Inflation Target and 2–6% Band Through 2031

The decision signals policy stability in the face of rising price risks.

Overview

  • The finance ministry’s gazette notification issued Wednesday under Section 45ZA sets a 4% CPI target with a 2–6% band for April 2026 to March 2031.
  • The government acted in consultation with the RBI, opting for continuity after the central bank’s August 2025 paper floated changes to the target, band, and use of core inflation.
  • Inflation in the new CPI series rose to 3.21% in February from the prior month, still under the target but vulnerable to oil costs and West Asia tensions.
  • The six-member Monetary Policy Committee, led by the RBI Governor, will set interest rates to meet the goal and must explain any miss that lasts three straight quarters.
  • This is the second five-year renewal since the framework began in 2016, a period over which average inflation fell to about 4.9% from 6.8% before adoption, according to RBI analysis.