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6mo ago

India Inflation Ticks Up to 0.71% in November, Still Far Below RBI Target

The reading follows the RBI’s December rate cut with a lower full‑year inflation forecast, keeping policy cues tied to incoming data.

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Overview

  • Headline CPI rose to 0.71% from October’s 0.25%, the 10th straight month below the RBI’s 4% goal and the third month under its 2–6% band.
  • Food prices stayed in deflation at -3.91% year on year, narrowing from -5.02%, as vegetables, eggs, meat and fish, spices, and fuel and light pushed the headline higher.
  • Core inflation held near 4.4%, with record-high gold and silver inflation lifting readings even as GST rate cuts eased parts of the core basket.
  • Price outcomes diverged by geography, with urban inflation at 1.40% and rural inflation at 0.10% in November.
  • After cutting the repo rate 25 bps to 5.25% and trimming its FY26 CPI forecast to 2%, the RBI remains data‑dependent as analysts see headline inflation edging up; Crisil expects about 2.5% for FY26.