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India Holds Fiscal Line as Pakistan Reports 3.7% Growth and Stronger Buffers

Both governments are using non‑tax resources and targeted relief to absorb higher fuel and fertiliser import costs after the Middle East conflict raised commodity prices.

Overview

  • Indian officials said this week that growth momentum remains intact and there is no immediate need for extra borrowing while the fertiliser subsidy bill could almost double to about Rs 3.4 lakh crore and the government has already provided roughly Rs 1.23 lakh crore to oil marketing companies to stabilise pump prices.
  • To avoid fresh borrowing, New Delhi is pushing minority stake sales and asset monetisation with a combined FY27 target near Rs 80,000 crore and has announced tax incentives to attract foreign investment into government debt markets.
  • Pakistan’s Economic Survey presented Thursday showed FY2025‑26 GDP growth of 3.7%, a sharp narrowing of the fiscal deficit to about 0.7% of GDP (Jul–Mar), a primary surplus, remittances near $34 billion (Jul–Apr) and foreign reserves around $17.2 billion as officials continue talks with the IMF.
  • Both countries’ measures have concrete effects for households and farmers because they kept retail fuel and fertiliser prices steady in the short run but those policies have raised government costs and will put pressure on future spending choices.
  • Officials in New Delhi and Islamabad plan near‑term reassessments of fiscal plans after April–June growth data and monsoon/El Niño developments, and Pakistan will present its FY27 budget and NEC targets immediately following the survey.