Overview
- S&P Global Ratings on June 24 projected India’s FY27 growth would slow to 6.6% and warned consumer inflation could average about 5.1%, saying a rate increase by the Reserve Bank of India is likely in the second half of the year.
- Goldman Sachs on June 26 revised up its calendar‑year 2026 growth forecast to 6.8% and trimmed inflation and current‑account deficit estimates after crude prices fell following the US‑Iran peace pact.
- Morgan Stanley expects about 6.7% growth in FY27 while warning that weak demand, low capacity utilization and weather risk limit a broad private capex cycle.
- EY gives a conditional FY27 range of 6.6–6.8% and says inflation could moderate to roughly 4.5% if global energy markets gradually normalize and Strait‑of‑Hormuz shipments return to normal.
- High oil import reliance (about 88%), early‑season monsoon rainfall deficits and volatile fertilizer costs mean growth, inflation and fiscal pressures remain highly conditional and could hit rural incomes and food prices if weather or energy conditions worsen.