India FMCG Shows Q3 Pickup With Q4 Margin Upside in View

Overview

• Q3 FY26 volumes rose about 3.5% year on year and aggregate revenue grew roughly 6.7%, according to Systematix Research.
• GST-related channel disruption and destocking that hit Q2 eased through Q3, though some firms, including HUL, reported spillover into October and part of November as festive demand supported restocking.
• Categories such as biscuits, soaps, hair oils, noodles, chocolates, coffee, cakes, winter skincare and decorative paints outperformed, while tea, edible oils, dairy and juices lagged.
• Brokerages see margins improving, with sequential Q3 gains and a more pronounced Q4 lift as input costs for wheat, copra, maize, milk, tea and crude derivatives decline.
• Updates from Godrej Consumer, Marico and Dabur cited strengthening demand and better affordability after GST cuts, and Marico noted copra prices about 30% below recent highs, supporting gross margin recovery.