Overview
- Under the new framework, excise on petrol and diesel is lower by Rs 10 per litre, diesel exports face a Rs 21.50 per litre levy, and aviation turbine fuel exports carry a Rs 29.50 per litre duty, while petrol exports stay exempt.
- Analysts flag uncertainty over whether Reliance’s Jamnagar Special Economic Zone exports will be exempt as in 2022, a decision that could swing both refining profits and the government’s take.
- Citi says losses at state-run fuel retailers fall to about Rs 19–23 per litre from Rs 35–40 after the tax changes, which pushes their crude oil breakeven to roughly USD 80 per barrel.
- Investec pegs the net revenue impact near Rs 80,000 crore without SEZ exemptions and up to Rs 1.5 lakh crore if they continue, while an SBI report projects at least Rs 1.1 lakh crore in FY27.
- SBI estimates states are collecting about Rs 25,000 crore more in fuel VAT due to higher crude prices, which could let them trim rates to pass savings to drivers.