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Independents' Support for Trump Falls to Roughly One-Quarter, AP‑NORC Finds

Rising worry about inflation plus high food and gas costs has cut independent approval and raised risks for Republicans in the midterms.

FILE - Voters stand in line outside a polling place at Madison Church, Nov. 5, 2024, in Phoenix, Ariz. (AP Photo/Matt York)
FILE - A man wears an "I voted" sticker on his shirt, printed with the American flag and the U.S. constitution, after voting at Wa-Ke Hatchee Recreation Center in Fort Myers, Fla, on Election Day, Nov. 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell, File)
FILE - An American flag flies in the wind as a voter leaves a polling site after casting a ballot on Election Day, Nov. 5, 2024, in Dearborn, Mich. (AP Photo/David Goldman, file)
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Overview

  • An AP‑NORC analysis of 21 polls shows independents’ favorability and approval of President Trump have fallen steadily through his second term.
  • The biggest drop hit independents without a college degree, whose positive views fell from about half before the 2024 election to roughly one-quarter by spring 2026, eliminating the prior education gap.
  • Hispanic and younger independents moved sharply away from Trump, with Hispanic independent approval falling as low as 15% during last fall’s government shutdown before settling near one-quarter.
  • Economic frustration drives much of the loss: only about three in ten independents approve of Trump’s handling of the economy and about 12% approve his handling of the cost of living as inflation and high gas and food prices persist.
  • Because more Americans now identify as independents and that group helped Trump in 2024, researchers say the erosion could make midterm races harder for Trump and other Republicans and leave outcomes less predictable.