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IMF Warns Middle East War Will Slow MENAP Growth in 2026

The Fund warns Pakistan must hold the line on budgets with the next IMF payout still awaiting Board approval.

Overview

  • IMF Resident Representative Mahir Binici told an SDPI session on Friday that the February 28 war has shaken energy markets, trade routes and finance, setting up a 2026 slowdown across MENAP.
  • He said oil buyers like Pakistan face pricier fuel and food, supply chain snags and possible drops in Gulf remittances, which could lift inflation and squeeze budgets.
  • Pakistan’s program was called broadly on track after March staff-level reviews of the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility.
  • The next loan tranche still needs IMF Executive Board approval, and officials urged tight budgets, data-led rate policy and targeted aid instead of blanket subsidies.
  • SDPI’s Abid Qaiyum Suleri pushed energy fixes such as talks on capacity payments and more renewables, and IMF official Maarten Bijl pressed for steady reforms as oil and freight shocks threaten 2026 growth.