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IMF Warns Middle East Conflict Could Lift Inflation and Slow Global Growth

The fund points to oil prices as the key channel transmitting the shock to the world economy.

Overview

  • IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told a Tokyo symposium that governments should “prepare for the unthinkable.”
  • A sustained 10% rise in oil prices would add about 40 basis points to global inflation and reduce world GDP growth by roughly 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points, the IMF estimates.
  • Energy markets, particularly oil, are identified as the primary transmission channel from the conflict to the broader economy.
  • The IMF is collecting data now and will present a detailed assessment in its World Economic Outlook due in mid-April.
  • Policymakers are urged to preserve fiscal and monetary space, strengthen institutions and policy frameworks, promote private-sector-led growth, and act with agility.