Overview
- The IMF recommends a formal rule that guides debt toward about 70% of GDP in the medium term and roughly 60% over the longer term.
- Its proposed framework includes spending limits, budget-balance targets, defined shock exceptions and oversight by an independent body.
- The Fund backs the government's plan for a 1.5% of GDP primary surplus in fiscal 2026 but says further fiscal tightening will be needed in subsequent years.
- Spending ceilings in place since 2012 have not contained the multi‑year rise in debt, with the Treasury projecting gross debt at 77.9% of GDP this year.
- The IMF projects 1.4% growth in 2026 and about 1.8% over the medium term, with inflation seen reaching 3% by end‑2027 and risks tilted to the downside.