Overview
- The IMF’s Article IV review projects U.S. growth of 2.4% in 2026 after 2.2% in 2025, with unemployment near 4%.
- The Fund flags trade-policy uncertainty as a near-term drag risk and expects tariff-driven price effects to fade as inflation returns toward the Fed’s 2% goal.
- Following the Supreme Court’s rejection of emergency universal tariffs last week, the administration imposed a 10% global levy and signaled possible Section 232 or 301 actions.
- IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva says tariffs have lifted goods inflation and views a 3.25%–3.5% federal funds rate as consistent with full employment as disinflation continues.
- Fiscal strains remain central, with IMF projections of 7%–8% deficits and debt near 140% of GDP by 2031, alongside CBO warnings on an unsustainable path and IIF data on record $348 trillion global debt.