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IMF Sees Pakistan Missing $60 Billion Export Goal as Imports Swell by 2030

The forecasts point to weak revenue mobilization with large financing needs through 2030.

Overview

  • Exports are projected at $36.46 billion next fiscal year and about $46 billion by 2030, implying a roughly $13.79 billion shortfall versus the government’s $60 billion objective.
  • Imports are forecast to climb from about $64 billion this year to $82.81 billion by 2030, signaling sustained pressure on the trade balance.
  • GDP is projected to reach Rs193,630 billion by 2030 after a cumulative Rs68,000 billion increase from 2026–2030, while this year’s target of Rs129,517 billion is now expected to come in near Rs126,000 billion.
  • The tax-to-GDP ratio is seen near 11.2% next year and roughly 11.1% through 2028–2030, with Federal Board of Revenue collections rising to around Rs21,500 billion by 2030.
  • The budget deficit is expected to narrow from 5.1% of GDP to 3.1% by 2030, requiring about Rs28,000 billion in financing (including roughly Rs2,300 billion external) as public debt rises to Rs117,441 billion and interest payments reach about Rs9,380 billion.