Overview
- The IMF’s Fiscal Monitor, released Wednesday during the Spring Meetings, projects Mexico’s gross public debt at 62.7% of GDP in 2026 after 61.8% in 2025, staying above roughly 63% through 2031.
- The IMF uses a broad “gross” measure that adds obligations from the federal government, social security funds, state-owned firms such as Pemex and CFE, development banks, and infrastructure funds.
- IMF officials praised recent restraint in primary spending but called for stronger, revenue-based consolidation, with Era Dabla-Norris warning that relying on cuts can hurt growth and social protection.
- Mexico’s Finance Ministry reports lower “net” debt of 53.2% of GDP in 2025 and 54.7% in 2026, reflecting a narrower definition that excludes some public-sector liabilities captured in the IMF’s metric.
- Global debt reached about 94% of world GDP in 2025 and could hit 100% by 2029, and Rodrigo Valdés urged governments to avoid broad energy subsidies and to use temporary, targeted aid to cushion price shocks.