Overview
- Global GDP is now projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 versus the October baseline, lifted by a surge in technology and AI investment concentrated in North America and Asia.
- Italy’s 2026 growth is trimmed to 0.7%, the only major EU downgrade, leaving it last in the bloc for GDP gains, while its 2027 forecast is held at 0.7%.
- Country updates include the United States at about 2.4% for 2026, China at 4.5%, Spain at 2.3% with the largest upward revision, Germany at 1.1%, and France at 1.0%.
- IMF chief economist Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas warns that higher tariffs or rising geopolitical tensions, including potential energy supply disruptions, could materially undercut the improved outlook.
- Europe is seen benefiting less from the AI investment wave, with eurozone growth at 1.3% in 2026 and inflation near 2% in 2026–2027 as energy costs and weak manufacturing persist.