Overview
- The IMF shifted Monday to treat its adverse scenario as the base case, saying its short‑conflict forecast no longer applies.
- Kristalina Georgieva warned that a war stretching into 2027 with oil near $125 a barrel would bring a much worse outcome.
- She said inflation is rising and long‑run expectations remain anchored for now.
- The Fund’s scenarios point to global growth near 2.5% in 2026 with 5.4% inflation under its adverse path, and 2.0% growth with 5.8% inflation in a severe case.
- Prolonged high energy costs would squeeze oil-importing emerging markets with heavy dollar debt by lifting fuel bills and raising borrowing costs.