Overview
- The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook released Tuesday, warned a prolonged Middle East war that damages energy routes could pull global growth near 2% in a worst case.
- Italy’s growth was cut to 0.5% in 2026 and 2027, with the fund saying most of the 2026 hit comes from higher energy prices and that natural gas is likely to jump more than oil.
- Confcommercio estimated households could lose up to €963 in real disposable income across 2026–27 in the worst energy‑shock scenario, with commerce, tourism, transport and services most exposed.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde said she will not step down and signaled rates could rise depending on data, with the next decision due April 30.
- The IMF warned public finances are tight, projecting global debt near 100% of GDP by 2029, and urged targeted, temporary, funded aid over broad energy tax cuts.