Overview
- The IMF’s World Economic Outlook update published July 8, 2026 lowered Mexico’s 2026 growth forecast to 1.2% and to 1.9% for 2027 while leaving Argentina’s outlook at 3.5% for 2026 and 4.0% for 2027 and projecting global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
- The Fund raised its global inflation forecast to 4.7% for 2026 and flagged that higher energy and food prices have stalled the recent disinflation trend.
- IMF staff framed the outlook as driven by two opposing forces — a negative supply shock from the Middle East conflict that lifts energy costs and an AI-led technology investment cycle that supports growth in some economies.
- Mexico’s finance ministry publicly disputed the IMF’s downgrade after the update, with Secretary Edgar Amador saying Mexico should perform better and attributing much of the revision to global energy shocks rather than domestic policy.
- The IMF urged policymakers to prioritize price stability, protect central bank independence and rebuild fiscal buffers, warning that renewed hostilities in the Middle East or deeper trade uncertainty, including over T‑MEC rules, would likely tighten financing conditions and further curb private investment and hiring.