IMEF Warns Mexico Will Need to Issue More Debt as Revenues Fall Short

Overview

• The Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas (IMEF) says government revenues do not cover fixed obligations, forcing the executive to return to bond markets for financing.
• IMEF estimates the expanded fiscal deficit measured by RFSP was about 4.8% of GDP in 2025 and expects it to stay near that level in 2026.
• About 60% of the federal budget is structurally rigid because of mandatory items such as pensions, subsidies, debt service and transfers to states and municipalities, limiting options to reallocate spending.
• Pension costs rose to roughly 6% of GDP in 2025 and IMEF projects they could reach about 8% by 2030, while public debt climbed from 29% of GDP in 2000 to 53% at end-2025 and may exceed 60% soon.
• IMEF urges a deep review of public spending and measures to boost revenue and efficiency because continued deficits have already hurt Mexico's credit rating and could raise borrowing costs for the government and private sector.