Overview
- IMD forecast products show favourable conditions and predict light to moderate rain with thunderstorms over Kerala and Lakshadweep between May 26 and May 29, but the department has not issued an official onset declaration.
- The agency’s formal onset requires at least 60% of 14 designated stations to record 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days plus strengthened westerly winds near 4.5 km and reduced outgoing longwave radiation, and those wind and OLR thresholds remain unmet.
- Several outlets updated their timing after real‑time checks, shifting the likely official onset into early June with some analysts giving windows such as June 2–4 or June 5–10.
- IMD and state centres have issued yellow and orange alerts for heavy rain and warned of thundersqualls and strong gusts in parts of Karnataka while heatwave conditions persist over central and northwest India.
- Long‑term studies and IMD forecasts note a trend toward more frequent May onsets and flag a developing El Niño as a factor that could slow the monsoon’s progress and raise the risk of a below‑normal seasonal total.