Overview
- The IMD, which issued its forecast Friday, set the Kerala onset for around May 26 with a plus‑or‑minus four‑day window.
- Conditions are already favorable for advance over the South Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands in the near term.
- India’s seasonal rain is projected at about 92% of the long‑period average, or roughly 80 cm versus the 87 cm norm, with global models signaling El Niño likely between May and July.
- An early Kerala onset does not guarantee strong rains later, as overall performance depends on monsoon surges and low‑pressure systems that form through the season.
- Heat alerts continue for northwest and central India, while isolated heavy rain is forecast for the northeast and parts of the south, and early rains could help kharif sowing and lower irrigation costs for farmers who lack assured water.