Overview
- IMD says the southwest monsoon is set to advance into the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands around May 16–17, supported by a strengthening system over the Bay.
- A well‑marked low over the southwest and west‑central Bay of Bengal, which persisted Thursday with cyclonic circulation reaching about 5.8 km, is helping drive the early push.
- Fishermen have been advised to avoid large parts of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea through May 17 because of rough seas linked to the low‑pressure area.
- Heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast through May 14–19 across Kerala, Tamil Nadu, parts of Karnataka and the Northeast, while heatwave to severe heatwave conditions continue in northwest and central India, with West Rajasthan under red alerts and temperatures touching 47–48°C.
- Meteorologists caution that an early Andaman onset does not guarantee an early mainland arrival or higher seasonal totals, and IMD plans Kerala‑onset guidance around May 15 as it maintains a 92%‑of‑LPA outlook tied to emerging El Niño conditions.