Overview
- The India Meteorological Department revised its June–September seasonal forecast to 90% of the 1971–2020 long‑period average and warned there is about a 60% probability the season could be classified as deficient, the update issued on June 8 shows.
- The national shortfall masks sharp regional differences because the IMD expects normal rain in the Northeast but below‑normal totals in central India, northwest India and much of the south peninsula.
- Kharif sowing has begun and current fertiliser stocks look sufficient for the season so far, so immediate, widespread crop losses are not certain and local rainfall timing will determine near‑term outcomes.
- Global models point to a weak‑to‑moderate El Niño that could strengthen later this year and, together with possible fertiliser supply shocks from West Asia and the Strait of Hormuz, raise the risk to rabi crops and winter food output.
- Commentators and analysts are urging policy responses such as shifting incentives toward millets, pulses and oilseeds and linking minimum support price guarantees to measures that conserve water and fertiliser use to reduce vulnerability.