Overview
- IMD’s first seasonal outlook puts nationwide monsoon rainfall at 92% of the long‑period average for June to September.
- The agency projects near‑normal rain early in the season with a likely dry August and September as a developing El Niño exerts a lagged influence on India.
- Below‑normal rain is expected across much of the country, with better chances for normal or higher totals in parts of the northeast, the northwest, and the southern peninsula.
- After abundant rain in 2024 and 2025, large reservoirs hold more water than last year and the 10‑year average and groundwater conditions have improved, providing a short‑term buffer.
- Farmers and markets are already reacting, with higher crop insurance premiums, interest in drought‑tolerant seeds, and stocking tied to tighter supply risks, and IMD’s detailed regional guidance is due in May.