Overview
- India’s weather agency, which issued its first-stage outlook Monday, pegs June–September rainfall at 92% of the long-period average with a ±5% margin, and private forecaster Skymet offers a similar 94% call.
- IMD officials expect El Niño to develop after June and curb rain most in August and September, while a late positive Indian Ocean Dipole could soften the impact.
- The seasonal map points to weaker rain across much of the country, with some areas in the Northeast, parts of the Northwest, and the southern peninsula likely to fare closer to normal or better.
- Probabilities tilt toward a weak season, with a 35% chance of a deficient outcome and 31% for below normal, compared with 27% for normal and very low odds of surplus rain.
- A softer monsoon could cut kharif sowing, strain reservoirs, and lift food prices, and the IMD plans a more detailed, regional update in the last week of May.