Overview
- A new International Institute for Strategic Studies analysis says drones seen over Volkel, Eindhoven and Gilze‑Rijen in November and December 2025 were likely launched from Russian-linked ‘shadow fleet’ tankers operating in the North Sea.
- The report draws on 144 incident reports from 13 countries and matches timings with open‑source ship tracks to identify repeated proximity of vessels such as Cgas Leopard, Tranquil Sea and Arctica.
- IISS characterises the campaign as designed to probe NATO response times and decision making, citing the 21 November event when up to ten drones were reported over Volkel and ground fire failed to produce debris.
- Researchers warn that small, low‑flying military‑style drones of roughly three to six metres evade legacy radar and that European air‑defence systems and cross‑national coordination are currently ill suited to stop this threat.
- Critics note the analysis is circumstantial rather than forensic and point to official statements that some sightings were labelled hobby drones, while the report’s authors urge NATO and European states to improve detection, rules of engagement and maritime monitoring.