Overview
- Emmanuel Grégoire leads first‑round voting intentions 32% to 30% over Rachida Dati, according to an Ifop survey conducted Feb. 16–19 for L’Opinion and Sud Radio.
- In a head‑to‑head runoff, the poll projects Dati defeating Grégoire 53% to 47%.
- If Pierre‑Yves Bournazel qualifies, a three‑way runoff would be 43% for Dati, 42% for Grégoire, and 15% for Bournazel; a three‑way with Sophia Chikirou yields 49% Dati, 40% Grégoire, 11% Chikirou.
- A four‑way scenario including Sarah Knafo also points to a Dati advantage (42% versus 36% for Grégoire), while only a five‑way second round flips to a narrow Grégoire edge, 33% to 32%.
- Grégoire says he will not ally with Bournazel between rounds, as Bournazel refuses to choose between left and right and targets the runoff, with smaller lists polling near or above 10% (Bournazel 12%, Chikirou 11%, Knafo 11%, RN 4%).