Overview
- Updating its monthly view, the IEA raised projected global oil supply growth for 2025 to 3.0 million bpd and cut demand growth to about 710,000 bpd, flagging potential surplus conditions in 2026.
- The agency expects oil use to rise by roughly 700,000 bpd in both 2025 and 2026 as a tougher macro backdrop and faster electric‑vehicle uptake slow consumption.
- OPEC kept its 2025 demand growth forecast at 1.3 million bpd and projects non‑OPEC supply increases of 0.8 million bpd in 2025 and 0.6 million bpd in 2026 led by the United States, Brazil, Canada and Argentina.
- OPEC reported OPEC+ crude output rose by 630,000 bpd in September to an average 43.05 million bpd as producers rolled back more of their earlier cuts.
- The IMF lifted its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2% but warned of downside risks from tariffs and inflation, while the WEF said the digital economy has reached 15% of global GDP and cyber losses are rising.